Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Why Kei Igawa? Why the bid? Why him? Why NOW?

From ESPN.com:

The Yankees won the bidding for Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa, ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney is reporting.

The winning bid is expected to be about $25 million. An announcement is expected Tuesday night.

After the bidding closed Monday, the Tigers were informed of the amount of the high bid, but not which team made it, The Associated Press reported. The New York Mets bid about $15 million for Igawa, another baseball official told The AP, on condition of anonymity.

The Yankees will have until midnight at the end of Dec. 28 to work out a contract with the 27-year-old left-hander. Igawa is represented by Arn Tellem, also the agent for Yankees left fielder Hideki Matsui.

The Yankees pay Hanshin only if they reach an agreement for Igawa.

Igawa went 14-9 last season with a 2.97 ERA in Japan. He struck out 194 to tie for the Central League lead, adding to the strikeout titles he won in 2002 and 2004.

Igawa has an 86-60 record with a 3.15 ERA. He would have to play in Japan for three more seasons before he could become a free agent.

*tries to breathe*

We just made a ridiculous bid for a pitcher who may not be a decent 4th starter...

*breathes*

I mean, I can understand why we made the bid... we need a lefty, no doubt about it... and depending on the contract we give him, he may be just about 36-40 mil for 4 years, the same deal we would offer Lilly...

Most Japanese pitchers have a ERA of 1 point or higher on their first years in the MLB... for example, a Japanese pitcher pitches a 2.00 ERA in the Japanese league can possibly see his ERA go up to 3.00 or higher...

2.97 ERA from last year would be up to 3.97 or higher... Lilly's career ERA is 4.60... looking at it objectively, it may seem that it's a decent deal... he can pitch more innings than Wright (but then again, I can)... he is a lefty... and silly to say, but look at him!



^ He's called "Iron Nerves" on his website (linked on the photo)... and he looks like he can beat some people up if a brawl is needed... personally, I think he looks like a less-skilled Japanese version of Randy Johnson...

This deal may be a decent deal, it just hinges on a few things...

1. The contract the Yankees offer...

2. If the Yankees really want to keep him...

and 3. If Igawa really wants to pitch for the Yankees...

If the Yankees offer a contract of... well... let's say, a 5 mil per year for 4 years... we would spend 40-45 mil... oh, what am I saying? This is still ridiculous...

Just like Matsuzaka, the deal may pay dividends in the future, and heck, Igawa already has a friend in Matsui to look to... but still... this appears and is a ridiculous bid...

It may work, but right now, it seems absolutely ridiculous... *sighs*

Imagine that: the first big splash the Yankees make in this off-season is a pitcher who has been projected to be a 4th/5th starter... I do hope the Yankees get him on a short 2-year deal, especially with Hughes, Sanchez, and Clippard due to come up in the next few years... but we'll see...

*head spins* I can't believe it, but I guess I can smile and say: "At least, it's not 51.1 million"... the Yankees finally decided to spend some money this year... however, many other teams are trying to catch up to the Yankees in outspending...

I have some faith that this will all work out in the end... but I wouldn't be surprised if Kei Igawa turns out to be the next "Fat Toad"... let's all just hope for the best, shall we?

Happy reading!

B(rent)

Wow... Jeter, Giambi, AND A-Rod sitting in the same club?

Apparently, according to Glitter and Gossip (thanks to Steve) and the Las Vegas Review Journal, it happened during the weekend at the Wynn Las Vegas's Tryst...

As it is written in the Review Journal:
New York Yankee slugger Alex Rodriguez, at Scores till the wee hours after spending much of the day at Fix (Bellagio) to watch the Southern Cal-Notre Dame game and returning for dinner. He also joined teammates Derek Jeter and Jason Giambi at Tryst (Wynn).
Too good to believe? Thanks to Napkin Nights, we got pictures!



^ Giambi with some random guy...



^ Look to your far right in the middle in the light blue shirt... that's A-Rod!



^ You can see A-Rod there drinking up a beer, but do you see the guy behind him? With the Jeter-like fade? I believe that the fade guy has to be Jeter...

So! What does this mean? A friendly engagement to get rid of old grudges and to start anew? We can only hope... but then again, crazier things have happened in Las Vegas...

Happy reading!

B(rent)

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

How much money should Lilly and Wilson get?

An debate started in the Yankees Empire has sparked into an idea I have here... how much money should Ted Lilly get?

According to the New York Post, Lilly is looking for 4 years/36 million... 9 mil per year on a 30-year-old cat?

Looking at Ted Lilly's splits of the past 3 years... it's ironic: he does well against Boston and Baltimore (3.27 in 14 games, and 3.28 in 8 games, respectfully), but he does terrible against the Yankees and... the Devil Rays with a 3-3, 5.86 ERA in 7 games...

He's also had difficulty against the Royals (7.45 in 4 games), White Sox (7.71 in 4 games), the A's (6.03 in 6 games), and the Angels (5.33 in 4 games)... I'd sign Lilly but not at 9 million per year...

Using Baseball-Reference.com, this is the similarity scores with Lilly:

# Odalis Perez (964)
# Joel Pineiro (963)
# Jason Jennings (962)
# Jason Marquis (959)
# Doug Davis (959)

Perez's salary: $8.75 mil and definitely going down with his next contract...
Pineiro's salary: $6,800,000
Jennings' salary: $4,500,000
Marquis's salary: $5,150,000
Davis's salary: $3,200,000

Using my deduction, I'd sign Lilly at a maximum 4 year/30 mil contract (or $7.5 mil per year), it would be extremely fair and it'll be at the accurate range for him and his skills... but as many bloggers have mentioned, that probably won't happen because of the free agent poll and the Matsuzaka bid... but meh... *shrugs*

K has mentioned to me that a 3 year/24 mil would be the best deal, and I would agree, less years, 8 mil per year, and yes, a million dollar difference does make a difference, just talk to Johnny Damon...

According to the Toronto Star, the Yankees are about to offer Lilly an offer in the next couple of days, and the Jays and Yankees are interested in a player I'd like to see the Yankees get: Gil Meche: young (28), experienced in the AL, and would come cheaper than many of the other pitchers on the free agent market...

That's kinda how I like my Wii: young, experienced on the market, and very cheap... however, that's exactly how I don't like my women... but let's continue...


The good guys at NoMaas.org have started to list their off-season ideas, and their 5th idea is quite fitting:

NoMaas offseason idea #5

According to reports, the Yankees are looking for a right-handed 1B so Giambi can become the permanent DH. We have read about interest in players like Wes Helms and Eduardo Perez. But, a better option exists, and he was on the team last season: Craig Wilson.

Wilson was acquired from Pittsburgh for Shawn Chacon in a Ca$hMoney carjack. NoMaas was very excited about the deal, but unfortunately, Wilson performed poorly in his audition with the Yankees, sporting a .613 OPS in 109 plate appearances. That sample size, however, is not reflective of Wilson's true ability. For his career, he has a 115 OPS+ and has destroyed left-handed pitching with a .395 OBP / .543 SLG / .938 OPS. He basically turns into Gary Sheffield when he faces LHP.

He's also decent against RHP with a .793 OPS.

Are you really going to find a better option? The only reason why Wilson won't be re-signed is because he might be in Torre's doghouse. Yet, we would rather judge a player on his career trends than just 109 plate appearances.
Craig Wilson was one of the trophies on which we, as Yankee fans, can look at and say "wow, Cashman is a genius"... Abreu and the late Lidle were the other two...

Wilson was also one of my favorite players this year, I still recall the game that I was at where he couldn't play a Jeter low-throw at 1st, and picked himself, Jeter, and the Yankees up in the next inning to hit a HR to help the Yankees win a 2-0 game for Wang against the Tigers...

I have heard talks about getting another 1st baseman, and hearing Shea Hillenbrand put in the mix... well... let's put Shea's splits against LHP up anyway (same as NoMaas): .338 .464 .802

No comparison... but of course, the Yankees aren't even thinking about Wilson... but with that said, how much should the Yankees pay for Wilson, if they choose to turn from their sinful ways?


The similarity scores for Wilson (good looking out NoMaas, sponsoring his page) are as follows:
  1. Craig Monroe (962)
  2. Austin Kearns (955)
  3. Kevin Mench (953)
  4. Bubba Trammell (950)
  5. Butch Huskey (946)
Monroe: $2,800,000
Kearns: $1,850,000
Mench: $2,800,000
Trammell: well... 3 years have passed...
Huskey: Bye bye...

And Wilson earned $3,300,000...

So would it be excessive for me to say that the Yankees should sign Wilson to a one or two year deal of about 3 million a year? I think it would be totally fair...

And just to throw this out there... Shea makes $5,800,000 and is looking for a little bit more in the market... according to the Post, the Yankees are very interested in him... I don't care much for Shea, and clearly, the better and cheaper choice, by far, is Wilson... but eh, that's how Torre and the Yankees roll...

The Yankees would save 3 million per year signing Wilson over Shea... but will the Yankees do it? Probably not... but a man can dream intelligently, can't he? :-)

Happy reading!

B(rent)

Thursday, November 16, 2006

So... THIS is who they get to write in my school's newspaper?

Forgive me for going off the cuff here, but I have to say: not getting responded/written back to write in the school's newspaper, and having this guy write on my subject of expertise (Yankees, Giants, Knicks, Rangers, etc.) and putting this ridiculous article out really unnerves me...

But instead of complaining about it, why not destroy his argument? :-)

From the Fordham Observer:
The key to the formation of any dynasty is the development of young players from within the organization. The Yankees' dynasty of the 1990s, was largely centered on the development and success of young players like Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettite and Mariano Rivera. The cycle of baseball has now come nearly full circle as these players prepare for the twilights of their careers.
Alright, we can agree there, but of course you got Bernie = Melky, Jeter = Cano, Pettite = Wang, and Mariano = we'll see... nicely written, but that's where all the nice and good stuff end...
This is an encouraging trend, but the Yankees need to further capitalize on their talent and build from within. Phillip Hughes is being touted as the best minor leaguer in baseball but needs to perform at the next level. Hopefully the Yankees can have him firmly established as a spot starter or the fifth man in the rotation by the end of next season. Brent Cox is one of the best relievers in the minor leagues and is said to be Mariano Rivera's heir. With relievers Tanyon Sturtze and Ron Villone expected to re-sign, this season should showcase a promising young bullpen of Sturtze and Villone, with Cox in a set-up role as he prepares for his inevitable usurpation of Rivera's closer role. Octavio Dotel has also filed for free agency and should be allowed to leave without a fight. In addition, the Yankees have an array of young, fast players in the minor leagues that are probably not ready to be starters in the majors, but can add energy and flexibility to the bench.
This is where the article goes terribly wrong...

1. J. Brent Cox is not Roger Clemens here, you want to throw in the fire-baller from AA straight to the MLB? Yes, Cox has great statistics, (6 - 2 with 1.75 ERA in AA), but if you wanna develop him the right way, don't bring him straight from AA to the MLB, it can destroy a pitcher's development, and hinder his growth as a pitcher...

You heard of Sean Henn? After getting destroyed by the Mets two years ago, I haven't heard much about him either... just because he was a lefty, he was brought up from AA to the MLB, and well... let's look at his numbers now: 3 - 1, 4.01 ERA, 18 games, 6 starts in AAA... the Yankees are experimenting with using him as a reliever, but instead of him moving up to AAA last year, and possibly hearing him in the same breath as Karstens and Rasner for the 5th starter spot, he's stuck in AAA, not knowing whether he has the stuff/skill to be a starter or a reliever... that indecision 2 years ago has resulted in his average AAA stats, and destruction in the proper development of him... his psyche works as well as his skills, and to destroy a young pitcher's psyche like that can destroy his career...

Who was the last great young pitcher that has come directly from the Royals or Devil Rays organization? Exactly my point...

Lastly, is Mariano slowing down that much for you to worry significantly about fast-tracking Cox from AA to the MLB? And did you completely give up and forget about Kyle Farnsworth? Gee, do your research...

2. "A promising young bullpen of Sturtze and Villone?" That has got to be the most idiotic thing I have read in The Observer...

First off, Strutze and Villone are both 36! If 36 is young in baseball terms, Julio Franco would just be considered a veteran, instead of an old man who can still hack it...

Second, let's look at Tanyon Sturtze, shall we? ERAs since 2003 (when he was converted to a reliever role): 5.94, 5.47, 4.73, 7.59... not exactly great for an average pitcher, eh? For a writer to seemingly give up on Farnsworth (who's 30, and has better stats than Sturtze), but advocate the resigning of Sturtze has got to be a joke... right?

With Villone, I love the guy, and I loved his signing, but let me quote from one of my favorite blogs, EJ from the Fire Joe Torre Blog on Villone:
Things started to unravel one month ago today. Villone was among the best relievers in baseball, pitching over 60 innings with a 2.23 ERA. Villone came in and gave up two runs in two innings, throwing 42 pitches against Baltimore. Including that appearance, Villone would then throw a total of 114 over the next three days. He would never be the same.

Since that 42 pitch outing, Villone has pitched just 12 innings, giving up 19 earned runs. His ERA has risen to 4.50. He had given up just 16 earned runs prior to that outing all year.

It's official. Ron Villone's arm is now completely useless. Good job Torre. We have lost an effective lefty weapon in the playoffs.
Torre destroyed Villone's arm, as he has done with Quantrill and Karsey in the past, and add to the fact that Villone's 36... yea... uh... no way would signing "young" Villone back would be the part thing to do...

3. If you say those things about our bench and our young, fast guys in the minors, why not mention some of them? This is a college newspaper, not the silly high school newspaper stuff where details aren't needed...

Talk about Kevin Thompson, Kevin Reese (though not young nor really fast), Brett Gardner (fastest guy in our minor league system)... talk about them, or at least, mention them... if you're going to name-drop Cox, name-drop the other guys that you talk about... consistency is important, and this guy doesn't have it... do your research...

***************

*whew* Alright, that was the first page of the 3-page article, here comes the 2nd one...
Alex Rodriguez has been one of the biggest disappointments in Yankees' recent history. His statistics reflect a seemingly solid player with a respectable, but not stellar average. But every Yankees fan knows how deeply his inconsistent play has set back the team. The unfortunate aspect of this situation is if Rodriguez was not the highest paid player in baseball history and was simply a young, unproven player trying to make his way in the harsh New York environment, he would have been forgiven. However, Rodriguez's salary and arrogance have magnified his inability to play consistently. The best thing for both sides in this situation would be a trade for A-Rod out of New York to a less pressurized venue. Rumors have been swirling that A-Rod's long-time friend and new manager of the Chicago Cubs, Lou Pinella, will attempt to acquire A-Rod for his new team. If this trade goes through and the Yankees are willing to pay a good portion of his inflated salary, the Yankees may be in a position to acquire Carlos Zambrano, a pitcher who could bolster the pitching staff for years to come.
This got me laughing quite a bit...

1. Let's work backwards... if you really think the Cubs would trade their #1 best pitcher for A-Rod, especially in a game where pitching is a huge need for many teams, you must be smoking something strong, and remember, kids, smoking is bad for you... even if it's weed...

Plus Zambrano will be a free agent in 2008, so why get him now if we're gonna probably get him later?

2. "His statistics reflect a seemingly solid player with a respectable, but not stellar average."

Nice to know that someone doesn't do their research... A-Rod has the 13th highest career batting average for active players, with every player above him possible to probable Hall of Famers... he has consistently hit 99 or more RBIs since 1996, he's the youngest player to hit 450 HRs, his OBP% this year ranked 19th (.392), and I fail to believe that this kid knows or even cares to know what OBP% really means and the importance of actually getting on base...

3. "However, Rodriguez's salary and arrogance have magnified his inability to play consistently."

I may be blind, I may be deaf, but how is A-Rod arrogant? What has A-Rod done to show himself "having or displaying a sense of overbearing self-worth or self-importance"? Was moving to 3rd base arrogant? Is having a Family Organization arrogant? Please, explain this to someone who's deaf, dumb, and blind like me...

4. "But every Yankees fan knows how deeply his inconsistent play has set back the team."

Uh... dum, dawgone it... ah doesn't knows how his inconsissency has hurt th' Yankees... especially when Giambi has been mo'e inconsissent... (thanks Dialectizer)... but seriously, when other players have been more inconsistent (i.e. Giambi among others), why put the inconsistent stamp on A-Rod?

I don't know if this kid knows baseball, but if you get a hit 3 out of 10 times up, you are a "good" player... is 3 out of 10 a term of consistency? Is being "clutch" a consistent term? Aaron Boone hit one of the most "clutch" HRs in all of playoff history... where is he now? Is he going into the Hall of Fame for such a "clutch" performance?

To consistently be one of the best players in the game today is what I like to call "consistent"... and A-Rod has done that ever since 1996... so I don't understand where that "inconsistent play" comes from... this kid's seeing A-Rod through "ESPN glasses"... it's sad to see...
There are few free agents on the market who could have a real impact on the Yankees for more than a single season. Obviously a player like Alfonso Soriano would be a tremendous asset if he returned to his former New York home, but the Yankees have too much money invested in hitting as it is. They should pursue a player like Soriano only if a trade situation arises through which they can unload some of their age and salary for a younger, premier player.
They shouldn't pursue a player like Soriano at all... our outfield is bloated with 4 All-Stars (Melky will be one, trust me)... Cano is a better defender at 2nd plus he has more upside at 2nd because he's younger (24 for Cano > 30 for Soriano)... plus Soriano will be warranting quite a bit of money...

There has been no talk of Soriano rejoining the Yankees, so why start up ridiculous talks about him?

***************

Last page of garbage to deal with...
A few of the pitchers who may be in pinstripes next season in less-publicized signings could be Tony Armas, Bruce Chen, Gil Meche or former Yankee Ted Lilly. Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver should look to cash in on their team's World Series win by raising their profiles on the free agent market. Although Suppan is older than Marquis, his ability to remain healthy and his winning attitude might make him a candidate to join the 2007 Yankees.
Two words, kid: National League... Suppan's 12-7 with an ERA over 4 last year with the Cardinals... the Cardinals play in the National League... the National League is weak in hitting compared to the American League... put Suppan in the American League, and he'll get rocked...

In fact, in his last 2 years in the American League, Jeff Suppan's ERA blew up to 5.32 in 2002 and 5.57 in 2003 before he was traded to the National League... and *gasps* his ERA improved greatly...

Plus, because of his playoff performances, the money he will be asking will be significantly more than he is worth... Gil Meche compares to Suppan, is younger, and will ask for less money...

Also, unlike Suppan, Gil Meche is already adjusted to the American League, and through the guidance of Ron Guidry, improvement can be made... Meche is 28, and pitchers have made improvements... Suppan's 32, and he has seemed to adjust to the National League well...

Mark my words: if Suppan goes to the American League, he will not be the same pitcher you saw in the playoffs, no question about it...
A pitcher like Zito, Schmidt or Suppan would be much more valuable to the Yankees. And with the Boston Red Sox having already won the Daisuke Matsuzaka bidding war, Zito looks to be the focus of the Yankees' offseason pursuits. Still, the Yankees should ensure that if they do decide to heavily court Zito, they should not neglect the other less high-profile free agents on the market.
Schmidt = never pitched in the American League, same age as Suppan, and seems to negate this kid's idea of going younger... Schmidt's a great pitcher, no doubt, but why would you invest money on a pitcher who has never pitched in the American League, a league that significantly hits better and harder than the National League? My advice: if the Yankees want Schmidt, get him, but beware the National League pitcher...

If Josh Beckett hasn't taught us anything about the plight of the National League pitcher, here's a picture that illustrates the plight...


















And now, last but not least...
Though only one of them has major league experience, all of them are under 25 years old, which is exactly what the Yankees should be looking for in the future. Hopefully this early trend of dumping salary and age for youth and potential will continue and transfer itself to the bigger deals as well.
Dude, if you're going to say that, mention the names of the pitchers! Oh wait, let me do that for you...

Chris Britton (from Baltimore), Humberto Sanchez, Kevin Whelan and Anthony Claggett... Sanchez and Whelan were regarded as 2 of the Top 10 Tigers' prospects in 2005, we got great prospects for Sheffield and Wright... mention them... talk about their stats, and what they bring to the Yankees...

This article could be spaced out for a couple of weeks... but of course, put all your eggs in one basket, why don't you?

This was the weakest Yankees article I have read in any newspaper... using many ESPN points as well as lack of research hurt the legitimacy of this article and of this writer...

If this is the best that the sports section of the Observer can do, maybe I am happy I wasn't contacted back to write...

Rob, all I can really say about your article is this: do your research!

Happy reading! :-)

B(rent)

Why I won't directly comment on the Red Sox's $51.1 million bid for Matsuzaka...

Two reasons...

1. My buddy K did it already in his blog post: Move over A-Rod, you're now a bargain...

2. NoMaas.org already did it as well:


























Really though, what is there to say? The Red Sox made a ridiculous bid on a pitcher who hasn't proven himself in the MLB... and Theo misjudged the market for Matsuzaka by a long shot...

The Yankees have had to pay for their sins on their ridiculous spending: Brown, Pavano, and not winning a World Series for the past 6 years, among other things... it's time for the Red Sox to do the same... :-)

Happy reading!

B(rent)