Wednesday, November 22, 2006

How much money should Lilly and Wilson get?

An debate started in the Yankees Empire has sparked into an idea I have here... how much money should Ted Lilly get?

According to the New York Post, Lilly is looking for 4 years/36 million... 9 mil per year on a 30-year-old cat?

Looking at Ted Lilly's splits of the past 3 years... it's ironic: he does well against Boston and Baltimore (3.27 in 14 games, and 3.28 in 8 games, respectfully), but he does terrible against the Yankees and... the Devil Rays with a 3-3, 5.86 ERA in 7 games...

He's also had difficulty against the Royals (7.45 in 4 games), White Sox (7.71 in 4 games), the A's (6.03 in 6 games), and the Angels (5.33 in 4 games)... I'd sign Lilly but not at 9 million per year...

Using, this is the similarity scores with Lilly:

# Odalis Perez (964)
# Joel Pineiro (963)
# Jason Jennings (962)
# Jason Marquis (959)
# Doug Davis (959)

Perez's salary: $8.75 mil and definitely going down with his next contract...
Pineiro's salary: $6,800,000
Jennings' salary: $4,500,000
Marquis's salary: $5,150,000
Davis's salary: $3,200,000

Using my deduction, I'd sign Lilly at a maximum 4 year/30 mil contract (or $7.5 mil per year), it would be extremely fair and it'll be at the accurate range for him and his skills... but as many bloggers have mentioned, that probably won't happen because of the free agent poll and the Matsuzaka bid... but meh... *shrugs*

K has mentioned to me that a 3 year/24 mil would be the best deal, and I would agree, less years, 8 mil per year, and yes, a million dollar difference does make a difference, just talk to Johnny Damon...

According to the Toronto Star, the Yankees are about to offer Lilly an offer in the next couple of days, and the Jays and Yankees are interested in a player I'd like to see the Yankees get: Gil Meche: young (28), experienced in the AL, and would come cheaper than many of the other pitchers on the free agent market...

That's kinda how I like my Wii: young, experienced on the market, and very cheap... however, that's exactly how I don't like my women... but let's continue...

The good guys at have started to list their off-season ideas, and their 5th idea is quite fitting:

NoMaas offseason idea #5

According to reports, the Yankees are looking for a right-handed 1B so Giambi can become the permanent DH. We have read about interest in players like Wes Helms and Eduardo Perez. But, a better option exists, and he was on the team last season: Craig Wilson.

Wilson was acquired from Pittsburgh for Shawn Chacon in a Ca$hMoney carjack. NoMaas was very excited about the deal, but unfortunately, Wilson performed poorly in his audition with the Yankees, sporting a .613 OPS in 109 plate appearances. That sample size, however, is not reflective of Wilson's true ability. For his career, he has a 115 OPS+ and has destroyed left-handed pitching with a .395 OBP / .543 SLG / .938 OPS. He basically turns into Gary Sheffield when he faces LHP.

He's also decent against RHP with a .793 OPS.

Are you really going to find a better option? The only reason why Wilson won't be re-signed is because he might be in Torre's doghouse. Yet, we would rather judge a player on his career trends than just 109 plate appearances.
Craig Wilson was one of the trophies on which we, as Yankee fans, can look at and say "wow, Cashman is a genius"... Abreu and the late Lidle were the other two...

Wilson was also one of my favorite players this year, I still recall the game that I was at where he couldn't play a Jeter low-throw at 1st, and picked himself, Jeter, and the Yankees up in the next inning to hit a HR to help the Yankees win a 2-0 game for Wang against the Tigers...

I have heard talks about getting another 1st baseman, and hearing Shea Hillenbrand put in the mix... well... let's put Shea's splits against LHP up anyway (same as NoMaas): .338 .464 .802

No comparison... but of course, the Yankees aren't even thinking about Wilson... but with that said, how much should the Yankees pay for Wilson, if they choose to turn from their sinful ways?

The similarity scores for Wilson (good looking out NoMaas, sponsoring his page) are as follows:
  1. Craig Monroe (962)
  2. Austin Kearns (955)
  3. Kevin Mench (953)
  4. Bubba Trammell (950)
  5. Butch Huskey (946)
Monroe: $2,800,000
Kearns: $1,850,000
Mench: $2,800,000
Trammell: well... 3 years have passed...
Huskey: Bye bye...

And Wilson earned $3,300,000...

So would it be excessive for me to say that the Yankees should sign Wilson to a one or two year deal of about 3 million a year? I think it would be totally fair...

And just to throw this out there... Shea makes $5,800,000 and is looking for a little bit more in the market... according to the Post, the Yankees are very interested in him... I don't care much for Shea, and clearly, the better and cheaper choice, by far, is Wilson... but eh, that's how Torre and the Yankees roll...

The Yankees would save 3 million per year signing Wilson over Shea... but will the Yankees do it? Probably not... but a man can dream intelligently, can't he? :-)

Happy reading!


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